Gold: weekly briefing
28 Oct – 4 Nov 2026
Top stories
- Gold falls to one-year low below $3,900 amid Fed hike bets (mining.com, 30 Oct) — Spot gold dropped as far as $3,891.67 an ounce on 30 October, its weakest in a year, as rising oil prices hardened bets on a December Federal Reserve rate increase. Mining.com reported that gold and silver producers fell as much as 8%.
- World Gold Council: central bank buying at fastest pace since 2024 (gold.org, 3 Nov) — The World Gold Council's Q3 2026 report said official institutions added a net 321 tonnes to reserves, the highest quarterly total since Q4 2024. It also recorded ETF inflows of 211 tonnes, while bar and coin demand fell 19% year on year.
- Fed holds rates as two officials back a December-style hike (Kitco, 28 Oct) — The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of an increase. Kitco reported futures pricing about an 83% chance of a December hike.
- China reports sharp rises in gold, nickel and rhenium reserves (mining.com, 1 Nov) — China's reserves of several strategic minerals rose sharply after a nationwide deposit reassessment, according to Xinhua citing Ministry of Natural Resources data. Xinhua said retained rhenium resources rose by more than 200%, though the revision reflects reassessed reserves rather than new output.
- Indian jewellers hold back purchases ahead of Diwali, expecting lower prices (Moneycontrol, 28 Oct) — Moneycontrol reported that major Indian jewellery chains are delaying gold purchases before Diwali, expecting further price falls, according to MMTC-PAMP. Gold prices had fallen about 24% since the Iran war began, the report said.
Trends
The week's dominant thread was continued pressure on prices from rate expectations. Gold's slide below $4,000 deepened into a one-year low on 30 October, which mining.com linked to oil-driven inflation worries and bets on a December Fed hike. The Fed's 28 October hold, with two dissenters favouring an increase, did little to dispel those bets. Oil's link to the Iran confrontation persisted, as renewed Gulf tensions lifted Brent above $115 according to Kitco. Central bank buying, a theme from last week, strengthened, with the World Gold Council reporting its fastest pace since 2024, in contrast to weak Indian consumer demand. The mining-restart story has faded, replaced by sector equity losses. China's reserve revision stands apart from the price narrative.
What it means (opinion)
Opinion: The evidence suggests rates and energy, rather than safe-haven buying, are setting gold's near-term direction. Official-sector purchases and record ETF holdings point to a floor of institutional demand, yet bar buying, jewellery and Indian consumer demand are weak, and reports suggest buyers are waiting for lower prices. Analysts at Commerzbank expect a recovery, while Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen warned of further forced liquidation. Next week, watch the US inflation and growth data that will shape December hike pricing, any confirmed US-Iran settlement or further Gulf attacks that would move oil, and whether the miners' slump triggers more margin-driven selling. A sustained recovery above $4,000 would suggest the rate narrative is easing; a further break below the $3,891 low would test the view that central bank demand is cushioning the market.
AI-assisted summary of public reporting; the analysis is opinion. Sources are linked above.