Russia: weekly briefing
13 Oct – 20 Oct 2026
Top stories
- Trump waives Russia sanctions days before they were due to take effect (TIME, 17 Oct) — Trump signed an order waiving many provisions of the Graham sanctions act, a week after announcing a Russian diesel deal. Senators from both parties criticised the move, while the White House said enforcement would impede peace efforts.
- Putin proposes Trump-Xi meeting on Ukraine; Kyiv rejects it (Euronews, 19 Oct) — The Wall Street Journal reported the Kremlin suggested a three-way meeting on the sidelines of an APEC summit in Shenzhen, with Peskov confirming talks. Ukraine's foreign minister said such a meeting would encourage Putin to continue the war.
- Ukraine strikes St Petersburg oil sites as Trump-Zelenskyy rift widens (NBC News, 18 Oct) — Ukrainian drone attacks set an oil terminal and fuel depot ablaze in St Petersburg, one of the largest Ukrainian aerial attacks of the war, according to reports. Trump has criticised Kyiv's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, and Zelenskyy said US-Ukraine intelligence sharing had resumed.
- Russian strikes hit Ukrainian energy sites; Kyiv says no warning given (New York Post, 19 Oct) — Zelenskyy said Russia fired 16 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones, with no early warning from partners. The UN described September as one of the deadliest periods of the war for civilians, while Rubio rejected claims of a US intelligence pause.
- Lavrov in Tehran pledges continued Russia-Iran cooperation (Iran International, 19 Oct) — Lavrov said Moscow would not abandon economic agreements with Iran during his Tehran visit. Trump said Russia had done very little to help Iran, while Reuters reported US intelligence assessments found military support from both Russia and China.
Trends
Energy and sanctions dominate this week's stories and link closely to the previous briefing. Trump's diesel deal, which we flagged last week, was followed by a waiver of new Russia sanctions, and critics in both parties see the two as connected. Trump's claimed energy ceasefire, announced on 11 October, appears to have been undermined by continued Russian strikes on power infrastructure, while Ukraine has resumed its refinery attacks. These disputes have widened the rift between Washington and Kyiv, a strain already visible when Zelenskyy rejected Trump's call for a new leader. Putin's proposed trilateral summit extends the pattern of diplomacy shaped by US economic choices. The satellite close approach reported by Scientific American stands largely apart, though it touches on space services Ukraine relies on.
What it means (opinion)
Opinion: This week suggests Washington is trading pressure on Moscow for short-term fuel price relief, a choice contested in Congress and in Kyiv. Whether the sanctions waiver marks a lasting shift or a tactical pause will depend on how the White House responds to Russia's continued strikes and to the proposed Trump-Xi-Putin meeting, which Trump has not agreed to attend. Watch next week for whether the reported US travel to Oslo and Russia for talks goes ahead, whether Republican criticism in Congress leads to formal action, and whether Ukraine continues its refinery strikes. Experts quoted by TIME doubt the diesel deal will much reduce US pump prices, so any political gains may be limited, which could make the administration either more cautious or more willing to offer Moscow further concessions.
AI-assisted summary of public reporting; the analysis is opinion. Sources are linked above.