Russia: weekly briefing
19 Oct – 26 Oct 2026
Top stories
- Trump's Russia sanctions waiver draws bipartisan criticism in Congress (CBS News, 19 Oct) — Trump waived Graham Act sanctions two days before they were due to take effect, citing national interests. Republican and Democratic lawmakers, and Zelenskyy, criticised the move as easing pressure on Moscow.
- Russia and Ukraine agree to resume US-brokered trilateral talks (BBC News, 21 Oct) — After Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg, Moscow said it was ready in principle to resume three-way talks. Russia also freed American Stephen Hubbard, though Ukraine and Europe dispute Russia's claims of battlefield advances.
- Russia and Ukraine agree localised Oleshky ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump (CNBC, 23 Oct) — The White House said both sides agreed to halt military action in the occupied city of Oleshky from 29 October. The pause is intended to allow humanitarian aid and a civilian evacuation through a safe passageway.
- Russia fires ballistic missiles at Kyiv after US-led peace talks (ABC News, 22 Oct) — Zelenskyy said Russia launched 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv in three waves, killing at least two people, and criticised the lack of pressure on Moscow. Ukraine's air force said none of the missiles were intercepted.
- Ukraine reportedly strikes Russian titanium and missile-component plants (Kyiv Independent, 25 Oct) — Ukrainian and Russian monitoring channels reported strikes on the Avisma titanium plant in Perm Krai and the Energiya plant in Lipetsk Oblast. Russian governors confirmed industrial sites were hit and some injuries occurred, while Ukraine had not commented.
Trends
Sanctions and diplomacy remain closely linked this week. The waiver of Graham Act measures, which we flagged last week in connection with Trump's diesel deal, drew bipartisan criticism in Congress, and Zelenskyy said it undercut the law's intent. Diplomacy moved forward alongside this: Witkoff's shuttle talks led to an agreement to resume trilateral talks, and a localised Oleshky ceasefire was announced. Energy strikes, a major theme last week, escalated, with Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and Ukrainian strikes on Russian industry. The Starlink access dispute, which Ukrainian officials say limited drone interceptions, also continued. The US-Ukraine rift persisted, with Trump again urging Ukraine to change leaders. The German sabotage and Serbian election stories stand largely apart, though they reflect wider European concern about Russia.
What it means (opinion)
Opinion, for the site: This week suggests a gap between Washington's engagement with Moscow and the pressure from Congress and Kyiv. Witkoff's talks and a possible round around 10 November in Abu Dhabi will test whether the sanctions waiver is treated as leverage or as a concession. Russia's claim that its forces hold the strategic initiative conflicts with Ukrainian and European assessments of a near-stalemate, which may limit progress. Long-range strikes on both sides suggest neither expects a quick end to hostilities, even though Zelenskyy has said he would accept a freeze along the current front line. Next week, watch whether the Oleshky ceasefire begins on 29 October as planned, whether Congress moves against the waiver, and whether attacks on Kyiv's energy infrastructure continue.
AI-assisted summary of public reporting; the analysis is opinion. Sources are linked above.